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Diesel is near a record high at around $6.29 a gallon this week, according to AAA data cited by Business Insider on October 15, 2026. That matters even if you never fill up with diesel: it fuels ships, trucks and other transportation, so higher diesel costs can feed into what it costs to move goods to store shelves. Meanwhile Brent crude, the international benchmark, traded around $105 a barrel this week, down from its wartime peaks, Business Insider reported.
What changed: shipping costs drew attention away from oil prices
According to analysts cited by Business Insider, the main worry in the crude market is no longer an oil supply shortage but a shipping crisis. Rates for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), large tankers frequently used in the Persian Gulf, have more than quadrupled in the past year. They rose from about $50,000 a day in late 2025 to over $200,000 a day in October, according to the shipping intelligence site Fearnpulse. A separate estimate from BCA Research puts the cost of a VLCC trip from the Persian Gulf to the Far East at over $30 a barrel, up from under $2 at the start of the year. BCA also said some ships traveling through the Middle East are being forced to take a longer voyage because of the blockade of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait.
Following the money from the Gulf to the pump
Business Insider reported that higher tanker rates and diesel prices reflect two things. The market is pricing in a higher premium for transporting oil out of the Middle East, and there is less refining capacity to produce fuel. Shipping is usually seen as secondary to the price of crude in energy costs. According to the report, that has changed, and energy costs could stay high even if oil prices cool from current levels.
Our math: turning a freight cost into a per-gallon figure
This is an illustration, not a measure of what is inside the US diesel price. BCA Research’s freight cost for the Persian Gulf to Far East route rose from under $2 to over $30 a barrel, an increase of at least $28 a barrel. A barrel holds 42 gallons. Dividing the $28 increase by 42 gallons gives about $0.67 a gallon. That shows how large the freight change on that route is compared with the price of fuel. The source does not say how much of the $6.29 US diesel price comes from shipping.
This week and what to watch
Check AAA’s diesel and gasoline price data to see whether pump prices move with the Brent benchmark or apart from it. Watch whether VLCC rates ease from above $200,000 a day, and whether shipping through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait returns to normal. Business Insider also noted that traders are weighing supply disruptions against the outlook for a resolution to the war. Source: Business Insider, October 15, 2026, citing Fearnpulse, BCA Research and AAA data. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice.
Sources: Business Insider
