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If you filled up your car this week, you likely paid far more than before the war in the Middle East began. The average price for regular gasoline reached $4.33 a gallon on Thursday, Oct. 15, 2026, according to AAA. Before the war, gas cost less than $3 a gallon, the Associated Press reported. Higher pump prices were a big part of September’s 0.8% rise in U.S. retail sales, which the Commerce Department reported the same day.
Why Retail Sales Rose: It Was Mostly the Price at the Pump
Retail sales climbed 0.8% in September after a revised 1.3% gain in August, the Commerce Department reported. That was above the 0.3% increase economists had expected, according to FactSet. Excluding gas stations, sales rose just 0.2%. Business at gas stations alone jumped 6.4% in September, the Commerce Department said. ‘The large jump in headline retail sales in September was almost entirely due to rising gasoline prices,’ Michael Pearce, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a note. The figures are not adjusted for inflation, which accelerated last month as gasoline and many other goods and services became more expensive, the AP reported.
Follow the Receipt: From the Pump to the Headline Number
Gas station sales rose 6.4% in September. Gas stations are part of total retail sales, so including them lifted the headline figure from 0.2% to the reported 0.8%. Other categories moved more modestly:
- Furniture and home furnishings stores rose 1.3%.
- Electronics and appliance stores gained 0.6%.
- Online retailers rose 0.3%.
- Clothing and accessories stores were unchanged.
- Restaurants, the only services category in the report, rose 1.1%.
The data does not include spending on travel and hotel stays. Pearce said consumer spending is still on track for a 3.3% annualized gain in the third quarter. He expects spending to lose momentum heading into the holiday shopping season as higher prices weigh more heavily on consumers. The report follows the government’s announcement earlier this month that employers added a disappointing 29,000 jobs in September and that the unemployment rate ticked up.
Our Math: What $4.33 Gas Costs a Family Filling Up Weekly
Here is an illustration based on AAA’s average price. Take a driver with a 15-gallon tank who fills up once a week:
- At today’s price, 15 gallons times $4.33 is $64.95 per fill-up.
- At $3 a gallon, 15 gallons times $3 is $45.00.
The difference is $19.95 per fill-up. Because the pre-war price was below $3, the true gap is at least that much. Over a year of weekly fill-ups, $19.95 times 52 weeks comes to about $1,037 more. That assumes prices and driving habits stay the same. Local prices vary by state and city.
This Week’s Check: Compare Your Pump Price to the Average
This week, compare the price at your local station with the $4.33 average AAA reported for Oct. 15. Watch for the Commerce Department’s next retail sales report. Also watch whether spending growth slows heading into the holiday season, as Oxford Economics’ Pearce expects, with gas and other prices weighing on budgets. Source: PBS NewsHour and the Associated Press, citing the Commerce Department, FactSet, Oxford Economics and AAA. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice.
Sources: PBS NewsHour / Associated Press, RTTNews
