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⏱️ 3 min read
Why did oil prices dip one day and climb back the next, and what does that mean for the gasoline you buy? Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, traded at $110.10 a barrel on October 20, 2026, near its highest level in five months, according to CNBC.
A Sanctions Waiver, Then a Claimed Houthi Strike: Two Forces Pulling Oil in Different Directions
Oil fell about 2% on Monday, October 19, after an executive order that President Donald Trump signed on Friday waived sweeping sanctions on Russia, including penalties tied to purchases of Russian energy, according to Fortune and the Associated Press. By Tuesday, Brent had climbed 55 cents, or 0.50%, to $110.10 a barrel, after touching $110.70 in the prior session, its highest level since May 20, CNBC reported. CNBC said traders were pricing in a risk premium from Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure. The Houthis said they had hit Saudi energy, airport and military sites, including an Aramco facility in Yanbu, the Shaybah oilfield, and airports in Riyadh and Abha. Saudi authorities had not confirmed the claims, and Reuters said it could not independently verify them.
From a Claimed Strike to Your Gas Station: How the Risk Premium Travels
Shiptracker Kpler reported that at least 18 vessels were attacked over two weeks, keeping a risk premium in place. Analysts at ING called it a ‘significant risk premium’, CNBC reported. A preliminary Reuters poll cited by CNBC showed US crude oil stockpiles were expected to have fallen last week. WTI crude for November delivery rose 0.24% to $103.91, while the more active December contract rose 39 cents to $98.93, per CNBC. Fortune’s oil tracker put Brent at $110.10 as of October 19. That was 27 cents below the prior day but up 5.61% from $104.25 a month earlier and up 79.22% from $61.43 a year earlier. Fortune notes that crude typically makes up more than half of what drivers pay per gallon, with refining, wholesale costs, taxes and station markups making up the rest. It adds that pump prices tend to rise quickly with oil but fall slowly, a pattern known as ‘rockets and feathers’.
Our Math: What a One-Month Rise Could Add to a Fill-Up
Using Fortune’s figures as an illustration: Brent rose from $104.25 a month ago to $110.10, a gain of $5.85 per barrel. A barrel holds 42 gallons, so the crude cost per gallon rose by roughly $0.139 ($5.85 divided by 42). For a 15-gallon weekly fill-up, that is about $2.09 extra ($0.139 times 15) if the increase passed straight through. It may not fully do so, since refining and taxes are separate costs. Over a year of weekly fill-ups, the same increase would add roughly $109 ($2.09 times 52) if it persisted. This is an illustration only, not a forecast.
This Week: What to Check and What to Watch
Compare the prices posted at your local stations with the oil benchmark before assuming your pump price will move by the same amount. Watch whether US crude stockpiles fall as the Reuters poll expected. Also watch whether Trump issues a final decision on the Russia sanctions waiver; he said on Saturday he had yet to announce one, according to CNBC. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice.
Sources: Fortune, CNBC, CNBC, Fortune / Associated Press
