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Why would oil prices fall right after tankers were attacked and oil facilities were bombed? Brent crude, the international benchmark, dropped 2.38% to $107.25 a barrel on Monday, and US West Texas Intermediate lost 1.78% to $99.60, CNBC reported on October 18-19, 2026. The source gives no retail gas price, but crude is the starting cost behind what you pay at the pump.
A Sanctions Waiver Meets New Attacks on Tankers and Terminals
On Friday, President Donald Trump signed an executive order waiving sanctions and tariffs on Russian energy exports under the law known as the Graham Act, which had been due to take effect the following week, Reuters reported. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Trump will take up to 60 days to assess what sanctions and tariffs would mean ‘to the global economy and even to the US economy.’ On Sunday, Ukraine launched a wave of drone strikes that set fires at an oil terminal and depot in St. Petersburg. The terminal exports about 120,000 barrels per day of refined products, mostly fuel oil, according to Kpler data cited by CNBC. In the Persian Gulf, two tankers were attacked off Saudi Arabia on Friday: one hit by a rocket-propelled grenade 78 nautical miles northeast of Al Jubayl and another, the ST3, struck by an unknown projectile, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre. CNBC reported that Iran has escalated tanker attacks in an effort to choke off crude exports from the region.
Follow the Oil: From a Waiver in Washington to a Price on Screens
First, the waiver removes, for now, penalties on countries that buy Russian oil and gas. According to CNBC, traders weighed the possibility of more Russian supply reaching the market. Second, Brent fell to $107.25 and WTI to $99.60 on Monday. Third, in a separate deal, Trump said Russia would initially supply more than 300,000 metric tons of diesel to the United States, followed by shipments in November and beyond. Reuters reported the deal is aimed at easing fuel prices that have climbed amid the war with Iran. Energy Secretary Chris Wright called it ‘a carrot to try to end the war, not an economic lifeline’ on ABC’s ‘This Week’, and told CNN’s ‘State of the Union’ that Russia can only export more diesel ‘if they turn down the conflict with Ukraine.’ Rubio said the diesel ‘is going to be sold one way or the other.’ Diesel fuels the trucks that carry goods to stores, so its price can feed into shelf prices, though the source gives no figure for that effect. Fourth, CNBC noted that the attacks in Russia and the Gulf have clouded the supply outlook.
Our Math: What a $2.61 Drop in Crude Means per Gallon
This is an illustration using only the reported figures. Brent’s 2.38% fall to $107.25 implies a prior price of about $109.86 ($107.25 divided by 0.9762), a drop of about $2.61 per barrel. A barrel holds 42 gallons, so $2.61 divided by 42 equals about 6.2 cents per gallon in crude cost alone, before refining, distribution and taxes. For a 15-gallon tank, 6.2 cents times 15 is about 93 cents per fill-up. Filled weekly, 93 cents times 52 is roughly $48 a year. This covers only the crude component and does not predict prices at any specific station.
This Week: What to Watch
Compare the pump prices you see with the Brent and WTI levels reported by CNBC to judge whether crude moves are passing through. Watch whether Trump’s 60-day review, as described by Rubio, produces a final decision. Also watch whether further strikes on Russian energy facilities or tanker attacks reported by UKMTO reduce the supply the waiver was expected to add. Sources: CNBC, Reuters. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice.
