Strategist Michael Howell projects the 30-year Treasury yield could climb toward 6%, a level he says historically slows economic growth.
He forecasts 2026 will be a quiet year for bitcoin, with the global liquidity cycle not bottoming until 2027.
Howell points to a U.S. federal deficit near 6% of GDP and heavy AI capital expenditure as the real drivers behind crypto’s recent underperformance — not Fed policy.
If you’re hoping for a quick bitcoin rebound, Cross-Border Capital founder Michael Howell has some projected, not-yet-realized bad news: 2026 might just be boring. Speaking on the Bitcoin News Channel podcast, Howell forecasts — this is his own forward-looking estimate, not a confirmed data point — that 30-year Treasury yields could climb as high as 6%, a threshold he says has historically marked the point where economic growth begins to slow, though not necessarily trigger a recession.
Liquidity, Not the Fed, Is the Real Culprit
Howell challenges the popular narrative that bitcoin’s slump tracks global M2 money supply. Instead, he argues bitcoin is far more sensitive to wholesale financial market liquidity, and he dismisses Federal Reserve tightening as the main driver of crypto’s recent weakness. Instead, he blames a boom in AI-related capital expenditure and a U.S. federal deficit running near 6% of GDP for siphoning liquidity away from markets. He backs this up by tracking six-week shifts in global liquidity, advanced three months, against a crypto index weighted 60% bitcoin, 30% Ethereum and 10% Solana. Separately, he notes nominal GDP growth is currently running between 6% and 8% annualized — the fastest pace since the early 1980s, according to his analysis.
What This Means for Your Portfolio and Wallet
If Howell’s projection holds, refinancing-sensitive borrowers and rate-driven sectors could feel the pinch first as debt issued at lower rates comes due against a potential 6% benchmark. For crypto holders, his call for a quiet 2026 followed by a 2027 liquidity trough suggests patience may be the name of the game rather than chasing short-term bounces.
Strategic Positioning & Defense Ideas
Investors concerned about rising long-term yields might consider shorter-duration fixed income exposure and maintaining diversification across asset classes rather than concentrating in rate-sensitive positions. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice.
What to Watch Next
Watch upcoming 30-year Treasury auctions and federal deficit data for signs Howell’s yield forecast is playing out, alongside any shifts in the crypto liquidity index he tracks. Full commentary is available via Profit Confidential.
